GDP Forecasts

We are nearing the end of the third quarter of the year (Q3: Jul/Aug/Sep), and there are a variety of forecasts out there as to what the change in GDP is going to be (that is, annualized change over the second quarter.

GDP figures are tracked and reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), part of the Department of Commerce on the last Thu (and sometimes Wed) of the month. On Wed, Sep 30, BEA will release its “final” number for Q2 (Apr/May/Jun), and then will release its initial reading of Q3 GDP (called the Advance Estimate) on Thu, Oct 29 (with two revisions at the ends of Nov and Dec).

Read these two articles regarding Q3 forecasts:

Congressional Budget Office (CBO) https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56335#:~:text=After%20a%20sharp%20contraction%20in,half%20of%20calendar%20year%202020.&text=In%202021%2C%20real%20GDP%20is,to%2Dfourth%2Dquarter%20basis (Links to an external site.).

CBS MarketWatch: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-economys-historic-slump-in-the-second-quarter-lowered-to-a-317-annual-pace-gdp-shows-2020-08-27 (Links to an external site.)

Then analyze, compare, and comment on them, followed by YOUR forecast (in percentage terms) of Q3 GDP activity (growth? more decline?). Finally, explain WHY did you pick the number you did?